BA predicts return to cycling market growth in 2025 following slower rate of decline last year

Bicycle Association (BA) members attending its annual members’ conference in Birmingham on Wednesday, March 12th will hear how 2024 saw a further decline in the cycling market, with sales down -2% vs 2023, continuing the long post-COVID downturn which began in the second half of 2021. 

However, more positively, the rate of annual decline began to ease in 2024 compared with previous years, and market performance flattened during the second half after a tough first half.

John Worthington, from the BA’s data and insights team, will take delegates at the conference through the key headlines from the new, 60-page, in-depth market analysis report, which is now available to purchase from the BA website.

Key highlights from the report include:

• Mechanical bike volumes fell -4% with total market volume estimated to have fallen to around 1.45 million units in 2024, marking a new low-point for the first quarter of the 21st century. 
• E-bike volumes also fell by -5% in spite of average selling prices plummeting amid particularly heavy discounting. Overall market volumes dropped to an estimated 146,000 units representing 9% of overall bike units.
• Although kids cycling participation stabilised in 2024 with 21% aged 5-16 riding a bike, according to Sport England, levels are however still 6% points lower than 2018-19 and sales fell again last year and are now around a third less than pre-Covid levels.
• In a somewhat challenging year overall for bikes, enthusiast sales performed well with higher priced road and mountain bikes showing year on year volume growth
• Whilst overall bike journeys dropped to below 2019 levels, Bikeshare performed strongly.
• PAC and services performed better than bicycle sales in 2024. Although PAC volumes were down -2%, value increased +3% driven in particular by strong sales in turbo trainers and indoor cycling. Services were the strongest part of the market, with volume and value rising 7% and 5% respectively, as many cyclists continued to opt for maintenance and repair over new purchases.

Whilst the BA expects the market to remain challenging in 2025, with the backdrop of a difficult macroeconomic climate, it predicts the long downturn will gradually bottom out over the coming months with forecasted volume growth in bike and PAC of 2% and 3% in services in 2025. E-bikes volumes however are expected to fall a further 1%.

Simon Irons, Bicycle Association Data & Insights Director, stated: “This report is a challenging read. The post-Covid overstocking, and associated heavy discounting levels in the market, persist and our industry still has a real challenge to restore margins and increase value. The continued decline in kids' cycling participation and kids’ bike sales is particularly concerning, given these are our cyclists of the future.”  

The BA Market Data Annual Report draws on a multitude of data sources, including its Market Data Service which collects data from c.70% by volume of cycling retailers, and in addition to a wealth of qualitative input from industry leaders within BA membership. The full report is distributed for free to its Market data subscribers with all BA Members receiving a free summary. 

The BA recently announced it had secured a significant injection of European Commission grant funding to support the extension of its market data service into Germany, in partnership with the German cycling trade association, and the development of new software tools that will benefit all BA members and subscribers. 

To purchase the report, visit: https://bicycleassociation.org.uk/pages/market-data